2012 Grey Cup Betting Odds

CFL fans will be thrilled to see this Sunday’s 100th Grey Cup kick off with a big celebration in Toronto as the country honours their league’s long history. In a spectacular twist of fate the Toronto Argonauts will have the home field advantage against the Calgary Stampeders as Toronto plays host to the Grey Cup this year. But will this act as an advantage for the Argos? History has shown that it’s neither an advantage nor a disadvantage. The twelve other teams to play in and host the Grey Cup have gone 6-6.

The Calgary Stampeders will be looking to come out hard and score fast to quiet down the home crowd. They did just that in BC last weekend when they scored 14 points in the first quarter and then another 14 points right after half time to finish the game with a 34-29 win over the BC Lions. The Argos did the opposite last week. They started slow with just 10 points in the first half but came out in the second half to score 17 points, holding Montreal to 3 points in the second half, and winning the game 27-20.

Calgary finished the regular season with a 12-6 record scoring 535 points and allowing 430 points. Toronto had a 9-9 regular season record scoring 445 points and allowing 491 points. Calgary QB Kevin Glenn finished the regular season with 4220 yards passing, 25 TDs and 16 INTs. Toronto QB Ricky Ray had 4059 yards passing, 20 TDs and 11 INTs during the regular season. Calgary has the league’s top RB Jon Cornish who ran for 1457 yards, 11TDs and just 5 fumbles during the regular season. Toronto’s RB Chad Kackert has run for 638 yards, 5 TDs and 1 fumble in the regular season. Thus clear edge to Calgary on offensive production and scoring.

Defensively Toronto has allowed more points than Calgary but they hold the edge in pass defense because they have two players in the top five of the CFL for interceptions, Calgary has only one in the top five. But Toronto will have to plan for Calgary’s Charleston Hughes who is second in the league for sacks with 11.

Special teams is a huge part of the CFL and Toronto might have a statistical edge with Chad Owens who has a combined kickoff, punt return and FG return yardage of 2510 yards. Calgary’s closest returner, Larry Taylor, has a combined return yardage of 1583 yards. Toronto’s punter Swayze Waters averages 45 yards (Noel Prefontaine, avg 43 yards) and Calgary’s punter Rob Maver averages 43 yards. Calgary’s PAT and FG kicker Rene Paredes has been an ace this season hitting all 49 PATs and scoring 40 of his 43 FG attempts. Paredes’ longest FG was 46 yards and he scored 170 points for the team. Toronto FG kicker Swayze Waters has hit all his PATs and kicked 32 of 43 FGs. Waters’ longest is 51 yards this season and he has scored 133 points for the team.

Right now the Stampeders are favored to win this game by a narrow 2 point spread. The over/under is at 55 points. That gives a final score of 29-27 to go over and 28-26 to go under if you assume the spread is correct.

In Week 2 Toronto beat Calgary 39-36 at home. In Week 8 Toronto beat Calgary 22-14 in Calgary. However, throughout the season each team traded games with their Conference Final opponents which demonstrates how unpredictable this league can be. In the playoffs Toronto has scored 69 points and allowed 46 points. In the playoffs Calgary has scored 70 points and allowed 59 points. In the 2012 the CFL saw only 10 of 72 regular season games finish with a 2 point or less spread. While not impossible, the design of the CFL game makes closer games less likely. Since 2000 there have only been 2 Grey Cup finals that ended in a spread of 2 points or less. As for the game total, again, very hard to predict as are all CFL games. During the regular season Calgary averaged about 30 points per game and Toronto averaged about 25 points per game. In the post season Calgary averaged 35 points per game and Toronto averaged 34.5 points per game. Either average takes you to or over the 55 point total.

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