Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 12

The Baltimore Ravens are going to head to San Diego this week in what is anticipated to be a close game. The Ravens are 8-2 this season and first in the AFC North. Baltimore lost a game to Philadelphia and to Houston. The two best opponents that they beat are Pittsburgh (13-10) and New England (31-30). Of note, 5 of their games have finished in a 3 point or less spread. San Diego has certainly had its share of struggles this season and is 4-6 this season which is a distance 2nd to the Denver Broncos in the AFC West. The upside of their 4-6 record is that they have had fairly close games against Denver, New Orleans and Tampa Bay.

Interestingly San Diego is the favorite to win this game at a 1 point spread and an over/under of 46.5 points. These odds may have been based on the fact that Baltimore Safety Ed Reed was suspended for one game at the beginning of this week. Reed leads the NFL in interceptions. However, since the suspension, Reed has won his appeal and will be able to play against the Chargers this week.

Looking at some numbers, on average Baltimore scores 26.7 points per game and San Diego scores 23.2 points. Baltimore allows an average of 20.6 points and San Diego allows an average of 22.1 points. Baltimore seems to have a way of allowing many yards but preventing a relatively low amount of scoring. Baltimore’s defense is ranked 23rd against the pass and 27th against the run in per game yardage. San Diego is ranked 19th against the pass and 3rd against the run per game and yet they allow more points to be scored against them.

Offensive production is roughly equal for each team. The Ravens are ranked 16th for their pass game and 25th for their run game. The Chargers are ranked 17th for the run and 22nd for the pass. But again, Baltimore scores more points on average per game. San Diego’s highest score this season was 37 points against the Chiefs; Baltimore’s highest score was 55 points against Oakland. Baltimore scores more of their TDs with their run game while San Diego scores more TDs with their passing game.

That Baltimore scores most of their TDs with the run could be a problem for them as San Diego has such a tough run defense. This gives San Diego hope to win the game. A 46.5 point total demonstrates that this will be a game won by the defense. So perhaps its best to predict the score based on the average points allowed. That makes it a 22-20 point game for Baltimore. So keep an eye on the spread to see if it changes later in the week.

There seems so to be little indication that the point total will exceed 46 points. A total of 47 points with a one point spread means the final would be 24-23 and that is plausible but seems slightly less likely. Baltimore has had most of its close games against good teams, San Diego is questionable mostly because they beat Kansas City twice and Kansas City is the worst team in the league. San Diego has not beat top teams.

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