Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 14
The Denver Broncos are hot right now and they will be taking their show into Oakland this week for Thursday Night Football. The Broncos are 9-3 and have won their past 7 games. The Oakland Raiders are 3-9 and have lost the past 5 games. In Week 4 these two teams met in Denver, Denver won 37-6. As division rivals both teams are sure to play hard. However, Denver has clinched the AFC West where the next closest team is the 4-8 Chargers.
Given each teams averages over the whole season these odds might make sense, but digging a bit deeper they do not. On average Denver scores 29.1 points a game. But in wins Denver has averaged just over 31 points. Oakland scores an average of 19.6 points a game. But when Oakland loses, they average 16.5 points. Defensively Denver allows an average of 20.3 points a game but when you take away the games they lost that average drops. On defense Oakland allows an average of 31.3 points and this has been very consistent of their performance all season. Therefore a better score choice based on this information would be something like 31-17 for Denver. The odds makers are suggesting a score around 30-20.
Denver will miss WR Brandon Stokley this week; he will be out with hip and wrist injuries. CB Tracy Porter is inactive this week with an illness. However, both players were out last week against the Buccaneers and the Broncos won 31-23. Oakland lost 42-32 to the Buccaneers. In part that demonstrates how much better Denver is than Oakland.
But Oakland has its own injuries to deal with. Oakland Safety Mike Mitchell and CB Phillip Adams both suffered concussions this past weekend and are out for this game. RB Darren McFadden who has been out with an ankle injury is expected to return this week and he will split carries with RB Marcel Reece. Unfortunately, Raiders’ head coach Dennis Allen has had to leave the team for a few days to be with a seriously ill father and will not return until Wednesday; their offensive coordinator will be in charge while Allen is gone. Combined these injuries and the coaching shuffle will likely be a slight disadvantage for the team despite the bump the run game will get from having two good RBs this week.
Oakland’s pass game has been their only light in an otherwise dismal season. Their defense is terrible ranking 25th against the pass and 28th against the run. Denver, on the other hand, has a terrific defense that s ranked 6th against the pass and 7th against the run. Oakland has beat Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville (in OT) but has not had a close game since Week 7. The 37-6 loss to Denver was back when Oakland was a decent team. So in short, Denver is hot, Oakland is not. It seems that another game like the last is completely feasible. At best the game would be about 31-17 and at worst another 37-6 game. The spread will probably be covered but the total of 49.5 should not be passed unless the Broncos have an above average day.
Denver beat New Orleans 34-14, Cincinnati 31-23 and Pittsburgh 31-19; all great orientated teams. No reason why Denver should not win this game.
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