Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 6

Week Six of Monday Night Football features Denver at San Diego for a major AFC West
showdown. The San Diego Chargers are 3-2 with the lead of the AFC West but Denver is on their heels at
2-3, wanting to tie up the division. This game is going to be very close with a reasonable 2 point spread
and an over/under of 49 ½ points. Historically these two teams are very competitive, this year San Diego
is 1-1 at home while Denver is 0-2 on the road.

The schedule has allowed for some interesting performance comparisons this season. San Diego
lost to the Atlanta Falcons 27-3 while Denver lost to the Falcons by a score of only 27-21. Atlanta’s
strength is their passing game, and neither San Diego nor Denver has a top ten passing defense so both
are vulnerable to the pass. However, Atlanta does have a good passing defense and yet Payton Manning
still managed to out pass Atlanta. All this goes to say that Manning’s passing game should be highly
effective against San Diego if San Diego clearly has a comparably weaker pass defense.

San Diego beat Oakland 22-14; Denver beat Oakland 37-6. This might suggest Denver’s defense
is better than San Diego’s. Also, Oakland has an average passing game but the lowest ranked run game.
So, this example is another indication that San Diego is highly susceptible to the passing attack.

Furthermore, Denver lost by just a touchdown to Atlanta and to Houston. Those are two
undefeated teams and Denver score 14 unanswered points against both teams in the 4 th quarter. This
says a lot about the kind of team Denver can be.

Another problem for San Diego is that their place kickers have been the number one and
number three scorers on the team. PK Nate Kaeding is out right now but PK Nick Novak has been filling
in quite well. Collectively San Diego has made 11 FGs this season and 13 TDs. Denver has put in 16 TDs
and 7 FGs. Denver has scored a total of 135 points this season and San Diego has scored 124 total
points. Denver averages 27 points a game to San Diego’s 24.8 points.

Denver has the better pass game and pass defense while San Diego has the better run game and
run defense. But both defenses have allowed the same amount of yards.

The spread makes sense. Denver has scored just over two points a game more than San Diego
but has given up just over two points more a game than San Diego. This game will come down to the
fourth quarter. Both teams are coming off a loss and both need the divisional win. A total of 50 points is
pretty high though. With no serious defensive injuries on either team one would think this game should
stick near the averages. That means Denver allows 22.8 points and San Diego allows 22.4 points.
Therefore we could easily see the underdog Denver come into San Diego for the win.

Perhaps worth noting is that in Denver-San Diego games, Denver is usually the underdog but has
won just under half those games as the underdog. Also, Denver has won in San Diego just 3 of 7 times
since 2001.

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