Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 14
Detroit at Green Bay will be the second NFC North match-up this weekend as the playoff picture in that division is heating up at the moment. Green Bay comes into this game 8-4 and Detroit is 4-8. Green Bay is tied for 1st in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears. Detroit is out of the playoff picture but they will surely want to take someone down with them. The Packers and Lions met in Week 11 at Detroit were the Packers won the game 24-20. Detroit was leading this game until the final two minutes of play.
The Lions have had close games over the past three weeks with their game against Green Bay, then a 34-31OT loss at home to Houston, and then a 35-33 loss to Indianapolis in the final seconds of the game last week. Detroit has not been able to put together a win lately and they have lost their past 4 games. Green Bay, on the other hand, has been strong as of late having lost just one game since Week 6 and that loss was two weeks ago in a 38-10 trip to the Giants.
At those odds the bookmakers are thinking the score will be about 29-22. That expectation is quizzical. The Packers are 5-1 this season at Lambeau Field and the Lions are 2-4 on the road, plus the Packers won last time, so a Packers win makes sense. At home this season the Packers have averaged 25.2 points scored per game. On the road the Lions have averaged 24.7 points scored per game. Those two scored match each team’s season average points scored, Packers 25 points and Lions 24.7 points.
Their defenses are nearly identical. Detroit allows an average of 353 yards a game and Green Bay allows an average of 349 yards per game. Detroit allows a few more points on average, 26.3 points; Green Bay allows an average of 21.6 points on average.
If there is one factor that may slow down the Green Bay offense it is that WR Jordy Nelson is unlikely to play this week due to a knee injury. Keep yourself updated on this situation, however, Nelson is the Packers’ second best receiver and that has to hurt their pass game a bit. But, Detroit lost WR Ryan Broyles last Sunday to a torn ACL, so they will also be short a receiver this week. This compounds the Lions’ WR problems as Titus Young is still not active. With two productive receivers out at the moment the Lions will really be hurting in the passing game.
Therefore, with these significant injuries expect the score to be closer to last game minus a few points for Detroit. Detroit still has offensive weapons in their stable and both defenses are healthy. A spacious score would be 26-17; and closer score would be 26-20. So picking the over option seems to be a bad choice. As for the spread, its close and seems unlikely if the Packers stay close to their average points scored at home this season.
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