Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 14
The Houston Texans have made believers out of the league having clinched a playoff berth and current sitting at 11-1. Their only loss has come at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. Throughout the season the Houston Texans have managed to beat all sorts of teams with all sorts of record and all sorts of strengths. However, Houston will be tested this week as they face the powerhouse offense in New England on MNF. When Houston has faced pass strong teams this season they have had close games (or lost as with Green Bay), but have fared much better against offenses that are run strong.
The Patriots are 6th in the league for passing offense and 8th in the league for run offense. This double threat has produced an average scoring offense of 35.8 points. That makes Houston’s 29.3 average points scored per game seem small. Defensively both teams are strong against the run and allow near the same points per game. New England has allowed an average of 21.7 points; Houston has allowed an average of 18.4 points.
New England is the favorite to win this game by a spread of 4 points and an over/under that is at 52 points
At home this season the Patriots are 4-1 and on the road the Texans are 5-0. There’s no doubt the home crowd will cause some trouble for Houston. Plus the injury report show that the Texans are a little beat up on the back end of their defense, which is not good news for a team that has allowed two of their last three games to go to overtime.
New England averages 426 yards on offense but allow an average of 381 yards on defense. Houston averages 390 yards on offense and their defense allows an average of 323 yards per game. That suggests this game might come down to how well New England’s offense plays against Houston’s defense. New England throws for an average of 285.5 yards passing each game; Houston allows an average of 235 yards passing per game. New England runs for an average of 140.8 yards per game; Houston allows an average of just 87.6 yards per game.
Against stronger defenses, this season, New England has not scored more than 24 points. When Houston has played better defenses, they have been held at or under 30 points. Therefore the point total of 52 points is achievable if both offenses play to their potential. The game will certainly be close but picking New England to win by more than 4 points is risky because the averages come out all over the map. If you look at the game one way New England might win 27-25 (take the differences between average score and allowed), or from another angle Houston might win 30-24.
Looking at how both teams handled a mutual opponent that is pass strong, New England beat Denver 31-21; Houston beat Denver 31-25. Looking at how both teams handled a strong run game, New England beat 52-28 and 37-31; Houston beat Buffalo 21-9. Seems like Houston is better against the run, but we knew that, against the pass and against a well rounded defense (Denver) both teams came out about the same. The winner not to cover the spread seems like a slightly safer bet.
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