Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 10

Week 10 Thursday Night Football pairs up the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars in a repeat of Week Three. In Week Three the Colts were defeated by the Jaguars in a close 22-17 game. But the Colts have since gone 4-1 taking their season record to 5-3. Meanwhile, Week Three was the only win the Jaguars have had all season, they are 1-7. That is a significant turn of events for both teams. The Colts seem to be on their way up and the Jaguars on their way down.

Indianapolis is favored to win this game by a 3-point spread and a game total of 42.5 points. To many this will seem like a low profile game, despite the fact that it is an AFC South matchup, because the Houston Texans lead the AFC South with a 7-1 record. However, there is some room for an upset in this game and a chance for Indianapolis’ playoff hopes to be dashed.

This will certainly be a close game but a covering a 3 point spread should be achievable. Jacksonville was behind at half time (14-3) in Week Three then surged back to win the game. Indianapolis out-threw Jacksonville but Jacksonville out-ran the Colts. Altogether the Colts had more yards gained and more time of possession but only scored 3 points in the second half.

The Colts went on to win a number of games by narrow margins, mainly against mediocre teams. But it does seem as though Colts’ QB Andrew Luck is improving. He is consistently improving his average yards per pass, his total yards per game, and his interceptions are becoming less frequent; not bad for a rookie QB. In fact, his efforts have made the Colts the 6th best passing offense in the league. Their running game is 19th in the league on the backs of two capable RBs. The Colts’ defense is ranked 11th against the pass and 25th against the run.

The Jaguars have gone on to play some of the toughest teams in the league, the second half of their schedule is remarkably easier than the first. They have played Green Bay, Oakland and Minnesota very well. However, there seems to be very little consistency between wins/losses and opponents’ strengths. It is hard to tell whether Jacksonville plays up to their opponent’s level or their opponents play down to Jacksonville’s level. That said the Jaguars have been left with very poor rankings: 32nd in passing, 28th in rushing, 25th in pass defense and 27th in run defense.

So why should anyone think this will be a close game? Despite the offensive improvements in Indianapolis, their defense tends to be loose when it comes to controlling scoring. The Colts allow an average of 23.9 points a game and are basically guaranteed to give up 20 points at the least as they have only given up fewer points twice in eight games (to teams worse than Jacksonville). Therefore give Jacksonville 20 points even if they earn an average of only 14.6 per game. Now Jacksonville allows an average of 27.4 points a game and Indianapolis averages 19.9 points scored a game. So with Indianapolis’ improved offense spilt the difference and give them 24 points. Thus expect the score to go to around 24-20 for the Colts given the way each team’s season has gone.

Now if you think Jacksonville could pull out the same stuff as Week Three and win you are not out of your mind. They have a poor record because they have been playing teams far above their calibre. They have already proven they could beat the Colts. However they should be the underdogs because they have yet to prove they can replicate the results.

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