Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 11

Week 11’s Thursday Night Football game features AFC East rivals the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. This is a bitter rivalry and a fan favorite. Since 2001 this matchup has resulted in an 11-11 tie. But last season Miami came out on top in both of two meetings. This year Buffalo is 3-6 while Miami is 4-5. Buffalo would love to get this game to put them back into contention after losing a well fought game last weekend against New England 37-31. Buffalo has won nearly 60% of home games against Miami over the past 10 years. This is also the first time this season Buffalo has played Miami.

Buffalo is the narrow favorite this week by a spread of 2 points and an over/under of 45 points.

Miami is 2-3 on the road this season while Buffalo is 1-2 at home. Buffalo’s two home losses came against New England, 52-28, and against Tennessee, 35-34. Buffalo played Tennessee in Week 7 and, interestingly, last week Miami lost to Tennessee 37-3. In the Miami-Tennessee game Dolphin’s QB Ryan Tannehill threw 3 INTs after going weeks without throwing an interception. Fortunately for Miami, Buffalo’s pass defense is one of the worst in the league, and their run defense is ranked even lower (furthermore the Bills have two important DEs out with injuries). That the Bills defense allowed the NY Jets a 48-28 victory in Week One, and since then Miami has lost to the Jets 23-20 OT and beat the Jets 30-9, might suggest a Miami defensive edge. Therefore one might believe that Miami has a much stronger defense relative to the Bills. The rankings tell the tale, Miami also has one of the worst pass defenses but they possess the 6th best run defense in the league. Defensive advantage for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins will need that strong run defense this week as the Bills’ offense is the 6th best run game in the league. But here’s the critical piece of information you need to know: Buffalo Bills’ starting RB Fred Jackson will be out this game with a concussion. If there is a rainbow in this for the Bills it’s that they use a two RB rotation and co-starter C.J Spiller is healthy with experience as the Bills’ sole starter at RB. Nonetheless we have to assume there will be somewhat of a drop off in rushing production.

Miami’s offense has a mediocre ranking but they have managed to beat two decent teams in Oakland and Cincinnati. Offensively the Dolphins have averaged the same passing yards per game as Buffalo. Buffalo by the numbers has a notable advantage on the run and Miami RB Reggie Bush sat out most of the first half after fumbling the football last week marking his third fumble this season. That said C.J. Spiller has two fumbles this season; and Spiller and Bush have both lost two of their fumbles each. Probably neither team will have the superior offense this week, making it a draw on offense.

The Dolphins have scored an average of 19.2 points per game and allowed an average of 20.7 points. The Bills have scored an average of 23.4 points per game and allowed an average of 31.7 points. Take some points away from the Bills because of Fred Jackson’s absence and the offensive points should be about a draw but not over 45 points. Even with Buffalo’s poor defense it seems unlikely the game would go over 45 as Miami’s defense can be suspect as we saw last week. Quite possibly an upset in this game, as the Dolphins looks better poised to take this game.

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