NCAA College Football Betting - Florida vs. Georgia

Florida (#2) versus Georgia (#10) is one of this week’s biggest match-ups and the game will have a significant bearing on what teams have a shot at the national title. Florida is one of the few undefeated teams left in the nation, they are 7-0. Last week Florida trounced South Carolina (then #7) 44-17. Georgia has a loss to their record at 6-1 after being beat by South Carolina two weeks ago; South Carolina won that game 35-7. The implications for this game are bigger for Florida than they are for Georgia in terms of SEC standings. Also, Florida needs a big game here to protect their #2 BCS ranking, but a Georgia win would also catapult them back into national title discussions.

Florida is the favorite in this game with a point spread of 7 points and an over/under of 49 points. The mark of a championship team and the strength of Florida is its defense. Ranked 4th in the nation for points permitting an average of 12.1 points a game. The most Florida has given up was 20 points against Tennessee (Week 3, then #23). They shut down South Carolina’s offense, an offense which Georgia failed to contain.

Florida is 18-4 against Georgia since 1990 and Georgia has an unhappy history of folding against big teams, the spotlight has been piercing for Georgia. Florida is not known for being a very powerful on offense but they can get the job done. They average 30.1 points a game and have maintained that average against ranked opponents. However it is Georgia’s offense that, by the numbers, is more dominant. Georgia’s passing game and their running game are ranked 30th in the country. Florida’s passing game and running games are ranked 118th and 25th respectively. Georgia has averaged over 100 more yards of offense per game than Florida, they have nearly 150 yards more in average passing yards and their rushing game averages just 7 yards per game less than Florida’s. Georgia has scored an average of 39.6 points per game.

Georgia’s defense is not as strong as Florida’s defense as they have given up an average of 24.1 points per game this season. South Carolina is the only ranked opponent they have faced and that was the game they lost 35-7. Georgia has a penchant for scoring points but also for letting weaker teams score points. Both Georgia and Florida played Tennessee. When Florida played Tennessee, Tennessee was ranked #23 and the score was 37-20 for Florida. When Georgia played Tennessee, Tennessee had lost their ranking and the score was 51-44 for Georgia.

Therefore a 7 point spread seems generous towards Georgia. It makes more sense to think Florida will win by a greater margin. Georgia’s defense has not been consistent like Florida has; and Georgia’s offense while powerful did not do anything against South Carolina. Consistency is the problem for Georgia. Last week they won a narrow 29-24 against Kentucky who is currently 1-7. Picking Florida to cover the spread seems like a steal this week.

As for the point total, that does seem a little high. But if you consider how Florida over powered South Carolina last week, who was formerly considered a top five team, it is possible Florida could do it again. Lately Georgia has not given its fans any reason to think that they are anything more than a flash in the pan; just as South Carolina has proven to be. On the other hand Florida has proven itself against a number of ranked opponents and come out on top. Florida’s closest game was against LSU which Florida won 14-6; LSU has since proven they are a legit contender. Under still seems like the better bet but the game could come very close to 49 points.

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