NCAA College Football Betting - Kansas State vs. Baylor

Kansas State has risen to the #1 spot in the nation after the unexpected demise of Alabama last week at the hands of Texas A&M. That said, Kansas State has earned its role at the top of the nation on the back of a fantastic running game and a stout defense. This week they will be tested by Baylor who, despite their 4-5 record, packs a mean offensive punch. Kansas State has a good chance of extending their undefeated 10-0 record if the Wildcat defense can hold back Baylor’s stunning pass attack and run combo.

Kansas State is favored to win this game with the spread at 11.5 points and the over/under at 74 points.

Kansas State has not beaten Baylor on the road in their last two matchups. The key is going to be to shut down Baylor’s run game and take advantage of Baylor’s weak defense. Defensively Kansas State has the second best run defense in their conference averaging just under 100 rushing yards allowed per game and just 6 rushing TDs. Kansas State’s defense is also very shrewd with their points allowed averaging 17.7 points which makes them ranked 17th in the nation.

Kansas State’s offense is led by QB Collin Klein who last season led the Wildcats to a last minute comeback victory over Baylor on home turf to win 36-35. This season he is a Heisman contender having thrown for 2020 yards, 12 TDs and just 3 INTs. Kansas State really dominates opponents when they get their run game going. RB John Hubert has run for 783 yards and 12 TDs. Then to complement Hubert, Collin Klein has rushed for 748 yards with 19 rushing TDs. Kansas State scores an average of 42.2 points each game.

The Baylor offense is run by QB Nick Florence who has passed for 3191 yards and 25 TDs this season on 343 attempts. That’s almost 10 yards per pass attempt, and his completion ratio is only 61.5%. The Kansas State defense will struggle with this pass attack. Not to be out done on the run, Baylor’s RB Glasco Martin has rushed for 528 yards this season and 6 TDs. The other Baylor RB Jarred Salubi has run for 440 yards and 3 TDs. This gives the Baylor offense its multi-faceted and high powered offense, an offense that is 2nd in the nation for average yards gained per game. In fact, Baylor averages over 100 yards more per game than Kansas State.

The reason Baylor is not winning more games is because their defense very weak and thus they end up losing offensive shoot outs to good teams. For example, they lost 56-50 to Texas, 42-34 against Oklahoma and 70-63 against West Virginia.

Looking at these two offenses and the respective defenses, it seems as if this game will look much like the Oregon-USC shoot out from a few weeks back. Kansas State to win is the good decision as they have a clear superiority on defense. A point total of 74 seems achievable and the spread will be close but easy enough to cover. Kansas State held West Virginia to 14 points and Oklahoma to 19 points so they definitely have a much better defense.

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