NCAA College Football Betting - SEC Championship - Alabama vs. Georgia

This Saturday Alabama and Georgia meet in Atlanta to play for the SEC Championship and a berth into the BCS national championship game. Alabama is ranked #2 and Georgia is ranked #3 entering this game. Alabama finished the season atop the SEC West and Georgia finished first in the SEC East after beating Florida during the season to give the Bulldogs the lead in the East despite finishing with the same record.

Alabama finished the season 11-1. They lost their one game to Texas A&M 29-24. Georgia finished the season at 11-1. They lost their one game to South Carolina 35-7. Both Texas A&M and South Carolina ended up in the BCS top ten at the end of the season but both Alabama and Georgia beat teams better than the Aggies and the Gamecocks. Alabama beat LSU 21-17 and Georgia beat Florida 17-9. So it’s probably fair to say that each team belongs here and deserves a shot at the national title, let alone the SEC title. However, given the end of season rankings, it might also be fair to say that Georgia had to beat tougher teams to get to this game than Alabama.

Alabama is the favorite going into this game at a 7 point spread and an over/under of 49.5 points

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This is going to be a wild game to watch. Both teams have put up tremendous scores this season against strong and weak opponents alike. However, Alabama’s defense has been far more consistent this season at restraining opponents. The most points they have allowed in a game was 24 points to Texas A&M. On average, the Crimson Tide defense has allowed just 9.3 points a game; good for 1st in the nation. Georgia has been much less consistent on defense; they have allowed an average of 17.7 points a game. They even allowed 44 points against Tennessee. However, we know they can play very well if they rise to the occasion; they held Florida to 9 points.

On offense against Florida Georgia also looked very good scoring 17 points against Florida’s defense that is ranked 3rd in the nation. On average Georgia scores 38 points a game. The Bulldog offense is well balanced. They are ranked 35th in the nation for passing yards per game and 39th for rushing yards per game. They average a total yardage count of 463.7 yards per game. But Alabama is not too far behind averaging a total of 433 yards per game. Alabama’s offense favors the run more heavily ranking 22nd in the nation and their passing game is ranked 78th in the nation. Despite being more dependent on the run, Alabama averages 39 points a game, one point ahead of Georgia.

Georgia should be alright against Alabama’s run game as Florida is built much like Alabama, just not as good, and Georgia came out on top. However, Alabama knocked off LSU and LSU had a balanced attack in that game, even producing more yards that Alabama in that game.

By the numbers a 7 point spread makes little sense in favor of Alabama. Given that this is a title game, and a chance to reach the BCS championship game, expect both teams to be at their best and play their hearts out. For Alabama their two toughest games were LSU and Texas A&M; so using those games Alabama scored an average of 22.5 points and allowed an average of 23 points. For Georgia their two toughest opponents were South Carolina and Florida; there they scored an average of 12 points and allowed an average of 22 points.

By the spread and using the over/under the odds makers are predicting, the score will be 28-21. That score does not really match up well with any numbers from the season. Alabama seems good for 22 points, and Georgia could finished with anywhere from 12-22 points. Florida beat LSU, Texas A&M and South Carolina; and yet Georgia beat Florida. Either Georgia had a great game and Florida did not; or, Georgia is legitimately the better team and this week’s game against Alabama will be closer than 7 points and under 49.5 points.

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