NCAA College Football Betting - Stanford vs. Oregon

This week Stanford will travel to Oregon to take on the Ducks and try to give themselves a shot at the Pac-12 finals. The Oregon Ducks are the #2 team in the nation and the Stanford Cardinals are the #13 team in the nation. Oregon is undefeated and Stanford is 8-2. In the Pac-12 Oregon is 7-0, Stanford is 6-1.

By now every college football fan knows about Oregon’s high flying score card. Ranked first in the nation, the Ducks score an average of 54.8 points each game. That is an astounding number to carry this far into the season. QB Marcus Mariota has thrown 28 TDs and run an extra three in himself. His completion percentages have reached unreal heights, as high as 87% against USC, and he has only thrown 5 INTs this season. Even better for the Ducks, the pass game is not their strongest option. Their run game is ranked 3rd in the nation, averaging 325.1 yards per game. RB Kenjon Barner has rushed for 19 TDS and 1360 yards.

The Stanford defense will need to be at their best this week and they do have some of the tools needed to cool the Ducks’ offense. Their front seven lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. They have allowed an average of 17.2 points against per game, good for 17th in the nation. They beat USC 21-14 and USC has averaged 36.9 points scored per game. They lost to Notre Dame in OT 20-13 and Notre Dame averages 26.1 points per game. Perhaps the Cardinals’ defense can also cut Oregon’s offensive production in half, or at least by a third. Furthermore, while Stanford may not be a championship contender, they will likely be the toughest defense Oregon has faced this year and will be a good indication of how the Ducks will fair during bowl season.

Defensively the Ducks are a good team but not an outstanding unit. They allow an average of 22.3 points per a game. But when you are scoring a minimum of 42 points (season low) then giving up 22 points is not a big deal. Oregon’s closest game was the 62-51 showdown against USC. USC’s pass offense drove the ball while Oregon’s run game moved their offense. Stanford does not have the high powered pass game that USC possesses. The Cardinals have a solid and well rounded offense that averages 29.1 points a game.

Oregon is the favorite to win this game with a 20.5 point spread and a game total of 66 points.

When you think about these numbers, in light of Stanford’s defensive strength, you get pretty good game. Using those numbers, for Oregon to just cover the spread and go over the score would at least be 44-23. In fact that score seems right in line with the average that Oregon gives up and the minimum Oregon has scored this year. Only against some of the worst teams has Stanford score significantly more than 23 points. So it seems clear that Oregon should be able to cover the spread. The question for wagering is can they also score enough to beat the over/under of 66 points. Historically yes, but given this might be the best defense they have played yet that might be difficult. Oregon will be at home and they will be up for this game as they will likely want bragging rights in the Pac-12 North. Picking the over would be a reasonable bet.

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