NCAA College Football Betting - Texas A&M vs. Alabama

NCAA College Football Betting - Texas A&M vs. Alabama

The nation leading Alabama Crimson Tide (#1) will host the Texas A&M Aggies (#15) this Saturday marking the Crimson Tide’s fourth game against a ranked opponent. Alabama is undefeated and fresh off a momentous win last week over LSU. The Aggies are 7-2 having lost to Florida and LSU. At initial glance this would appear to be clear win for Alabama; however, there are good reasons to think Texas A&M will not be easily beat.

Alabama is favored to win this game with a 13.5 point spread and an over/under of 56.5 points. On average the Aggies score 44.7 points per game and they allow 21 points a game. Alabama scores slightly less points per game with 38.4 points and they allow the least in the nation with 9.1 points per game. One team has a more productive offense but the other has a tighter defense.

If you look at mutual opponents the same story emerges. Alabama played Mississippi State and won 38-7, Texas A&M also beat Mississippi State but the score was 38-13. Alabama beat LSU 21-17, while Texas A&M lost to LSU 24-19. Alabama beat Ole Miss 33-14; Texas A&M beat Ole Miss 30-27. Alabama beat Arkansas 52-0 and Texas A&M beat Arkansas 58-10. The scores and win/loss margin are virtually identical in each example demonstrating near equal offensive production but a clear edge to Alabama’s defense.

By rankings Texas A&M has a more productive offense in terms of yardage by a significant margin. Thus the Crimson Tide will have to be on their toes this week. If the Crimson Tide win one more SEC game they will go to the SEC championship game; a win this week will guarantee that, plus, go a long way towards getting them to the national championship. Texas A&M could change their season with this win.

The Aggies earned over 600 yards last week and that makes it the fifth time this season their offense has obtained this feat. QB Johnny Manziel will lead the A&M no-huddle offense. He has passed for 2527 yards, 16 TDs and 6 INTs.

Given a total score of 56.5 and a point spread of 13.5 that means that the score would be, at the closest, 36-21 to cover the spread and go over. That would mean that Alabama gets all its average points which it did against Mississippi State but not LSU. Because Texas A&M also had such a close game against LSU it seems reasonable to think that they can also hold back the Alabama offense from getting 36 points. Given Alabama’s strong defense it seems unlikely that the Aggies are capable of scoring anything close to their average points per game. Probably the LSU game is indicative of what might happen this week and the Aggies will score just under 20 points.

Therefore Alabama to win makes perfect sense but the game going to or past a total of 56.5 points does not. That the spread is achievable is reasonable for an Alabama win but probably not if you think Texas A&M will win. An Alabama win by a margin below 13.5 points is possible but given Alabama is at home and that they handled pass powerful Tennessee 44-13, failing to cover the spread seems less likely.

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