NCAA Football Betting - Georgia vs. South Carolina

This game of Georgia (#5) at South Carolina (#6) ought to be considered the game of the week. Saturday evening at 7pm ET on ESPN these two teams, both undefeated and both at the top of the SEC-East, will help determine who takes the lead of the SEC-East. Also Saturday the third co-leader of the SEC-East, Florida, will be playing LSU in another much anticipated game that will decide whether there will be a solo or dual leadership in the division.

The story for this game will be Georgia’s stunning offense against South Carolina’s stonewall defense. Georgia is ranked 29th in the passing game and 11th in the running game. They average over 500 total offensive yards per game. And Georgia turns those yards into points ranking 8th in the nation for points scored with an average of 48.2 points per game. The player to watch on Georgia’s offense is running back Todd Gurley who is the league leader with 536 yards on 68 carries and 9 TDs. But South Carolina’s 6th ranked defense will look to contend with Georgia’s talent having allowed an average of 11.2 points a game this season, never giving up more than 17 points.

Georgia has lost the last two meetings between these teams. Looking at mutual opponents, Georgia beat Missouri 41-20 and South Carolina beat Missouri 31-10. Georgia beat Vanderbilt 48-3 and South Carolina beat Vanderbilt 17-13 (Week One). Georgia may be stopping their losing streak to South Carolina this season, this week..

However, South Carolina is favored to win this game with a 2 point spread and an over/under of 55 points. It’s hard to mess with the spread on this game but there is always a higher probability in football that the game will be decided by at least 3 points. That said a 1 point spread is common enough, and the difficulty here is that neither team has played a ranked opponent yet, both are 3-0 in the SEC, and neither team has had games that close yet. We just do not know how either team will perform under intense pressure of a close game.

Georgia allows an average of 22 points per game to their 48.2 points scored per game. To South Carolina’s 11.2 points allowed per game, South Carolina has scored an average of 36.6 points. Say you assume Georgia’s defense can contain South Carolina’s relatively weaker offense to the Georgia average allowed of 22 points. Then you either add the two point spread to get a 24 points for Georgia and a total of 46 points; or, you take the difference between Georgia’s 48.2 points scored and South Carolina’s 11.2 points allowed, which is roughly 30 points, and add it to the 22 points Georgia will allow South Carolina to get 52 points. Therefore using past performance as a predictor, a 55 point total is too high.

The big question will be does South Carolina have an answer for Georgia’s QB Aaron Murray’s 1370 passing yards on 129 attempts and 12 TDs. It is worth noting that South Carolina’s defense has allowed just 26 total points at home (3 games) to their 30 points allowed on the road (two games), and never more than 10 points allowed in a single game at home this season. This will be an exciting game.

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