NCAA Football Betting - Texas vs. Oklahoma

Here comes a big time Big 12 matchup this weekend as the Texas Longhorns (# 15) face the
Oklahoma Sooners (#13) in Week 7 on ABC. Game time is 12pm ET at Cotton Bowl field. Texas is 4-1
after losing a close battle to West Virginia (then #8) 48-45. Oklahoma is 3-1 and beat Texas Tech last
weekend 41-20. Oklahoma’s loss came against Kansas State (then #15) 24-19. Before Oklahoma’s loss to
Kansas State they were ranking around 5th in the nation.

In this game coming up against Texas they are favored to win by 3 points. This sort of spread
says a lot about Oklahoma’s defense. Texas has scored an average of 46.8 points a game. Most notably
they scored 45 points against West Virginia. To score that many points against a top ten team is
impressive. But Oklahoma’s offense is no slouch either averaging 38.3 points a game. However,
Oklahoma only scored 19 points against Kansas State who is now ranked around 6th in the country. But
that was against a defense that has allowed an average of 15.6 points a game. Texas has allowed an
average of 26.4 points a game. And West Virginia allows an average of 35 points a game which in part
explains the high score in the Texas-West Virginia game.

So obviously, Texas is good but they have not faced such a strong defense yet. And Oklahoma
has a strong offense but their defense may be a little unprepared for the assault Texas brings. Whatever
the outcome the loser of this game will fall back an extra game behind current Big 12 leaders West
Virginia and Kansas State.

Texas was splitting time between two QBs last season but David Ash won the job this year and
that confidence could help carry him over Oklahoma this week. Ash has thrown for 1276 yards at 77.5%
this season and 11 TDs. Oklahoma’s QB Landry Jones currently has 1032 yards at 63.3% and 7 TDs. In the
running game Oklahoma’s Damien Williams has earned 341 yards on 44 carries and 5 TDs. Texas RB Joe
Bergeron has only 300 yards earned on 69 carries but has 9 TDs.

Defensively Oklahoma is 20th in the nation allowing an average of 16 points a game. Texas is 66th
in the nation giving up an average of 26.4 points a game. That’s still pretty low when you consider that
the over/under for this game is 61 points. Which way will this game go is very hard to predict. The
offensive numbers say the game should go very high, the defensive numbers say the game should stay
low.

Let’s say the spread is correct. That puts Oklahoma at 32 points and Texas at 29 points. This
actually seems pretty reasonable when you consider the points for and against averages for the two
teams. So the under bet is probably safest. Sooners have won the past two encounters between these
teams and have the higher ranking for good reason, they are a better rounded team.

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