New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 4

This is a big weekend for the New England Patriots as they look to get back into the running for the AFC East, let alone the Super Bowl. The Patriots entered the regular season AFC favorites to win the conference but have faltered early. They will travel to Buffalo this Sunday to play the Bills who are tied with the New York Jets for the lead in the AFC East. The Patriots are 1-2 and the Bills are 2-1.

New England is the favorite to win this game with a 4 point spread and an over/under of 52 points. Each team has about the same points scored average with the Patriots averaging 27.3 points per game and the Bills 29 points. Points against is also about equal with New England allowing an average of 21.3 points a game and Buffalo 26.3 points. New England’s three games have totalled 61, 38 and 47 points. Buffalo’s three games have totalled 38, 52 and 76 points. Last year New England beat Buffalo 49-21.

New England’s offense is a pass centric offense. Brady has thrown for 887 yards and 4 TDs. Their run offense is not as strong, running back Stevan Ridley has accumulated just 233 yards on 52 carries and 1 TD. Buffalo’s offense is balanced between the run and the pass. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 581 yards and 8 TDs. Buffalo’s running backs have chalked up over 400 yards, C.J. Spiller has run for 308 yards on 33 carries and Tashard Choice has 131 yards on 32 carries. Both defenses have roughly the same passing yards allowed so edge goes to New England for pass effectiveness this weekend. New England’s defense is notably better against the run so again edge to New England.

Unfortunately for Buffalo’s RB C.J. Spiller is listed as doubtful this week after injuring his left shoulder in last Sunday’s game against Cleveland. Also another Buffalo running back Fred Jackson is listed as questionable for this weekend. Jackson has missed two weeks for a sprained right knee ligament. This could destroy Buffalo’s run game. New England’s pass game will be slowed but not stopped by the questionable status of wide receiver Julian Edelman. Edelman caught a touchdown in last Sunday’s game but had to leave the game with a hand injury.

Looking at the average points scored this season by both teams it seems as though this game could go over 52 points. However there are two reasons to think this game might not go over 52 points. First, Buffalo’s run game will suffer this week and the run is a vital part of their offensive production. Second, when you total the average points allowed per game, you only get 47 points . For the point spread it is possible that 4 points is not enough. With a reduced Buffalo offense a wider margin makes sense. Then also, if you consider the caliber of opponents faced thus far, Buffalo may have the better record but they have played lesser teams than New England. When New England played Tennessee they won by a 21 point margin and Tennessee is a middle of the pack team. Buffalo has yet to win by that margin despite playing mediocre teams.

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