New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 12

The third game on Thanksgiving Thursday will be the New England Patriots at the NY Jets. At first glance it would seem as though this is a clear win for the Patriots. They are 7-3, leading the AFC East, They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and they are on a 4 game win streak. The Jets are 4-6, 2nd in the AFC East and have lost 3 of their last 4 games. But there is hope for a close game; in Week 7 the Jets lost a close 29-26 OT game to the Patriots.

The Patriots are favored to win this game with a 6 point spread and an over/under of 48.5 points.

At home the Jets are 2-3 this season and on the road the Patriots are 3-2. Since 2001 the Patriots are 18-7 against the Jets. On average the Patriots score 35.8 points and the Jets score just 20.2 points on average. Defensively the Patriots allow an average of 22.5 points and the Jets allow 24.1 points. The numbers seem pretty bleak for the Jets.

So how did the Jets get to a tie at the end of regulation against the Patriots? Field position combined with a great day by field goal kicker Nick Folk. Plus the Jets managed to hold the New England to just 3 TDs.

Furthermore, this matchup is much better than each team’s record and point averages show. New England is 4th in the league in passing yards per game and 5th in the league for running yards per game. The Jets have the 4th best pass defense per game this year but their run defense is ranked 30th in per game rushing yards allowed. The Jets are ranked 29th and 15th in passing and rushing yards per game respectively. The Patriots’ defense is ranked 30th and 10th against the pass and run per game respectively. However, the Jets actually exceeded the Patriots in total yards in Week 7.

The question is then, can the Jets have a second close game against New England. Perhaps the best way to consider that is to compare mutual opponents. If the Jets just had an extrodinary day in Week 7 it should show in weaker performances against mutual opponents. The Jets beat Buffalo 48-28; the Patriots beat Buffalo twice 52-28 and 37-31. The Patriots beat the Rams 45-7 and the Jets beat the Rams 27-13. New England beat the Colts 59-24 and the Jets beat the Colts 35-9. And finally, the Patriots lost to Seattle 24-23 and the Jets lost to Seattle 28-7. These results tell us two things: New England definitely has a more powerful offense but the two defenses are pretty much equal.

So looking at the 6-point spread it makes a lot of sense. Assume each team will give up at least its average points allowed. But, New England should be able to score more points beyond that average points allowed by the Jets; and the Jets should not. Based on the averages a reasonable score to predict would be 28-23 for New England. Not surprisingly that is a similar score to Week 7 but we can expect the Patriots to be stronger in regular time. Therefore it seems reasonable to think the game will go over the 48.5 over/under total. The spread is questionable, but if you take the averages the Patriots have a slightly better chance of scoring more than 28 points and the Jets are more likely not to score more than 23 points. Thus the Patriots have the potential to cover the spread.

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