New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 15
Both the NY Giants and the Atlanta Falcons have struggled to find consistency as of late. Both are considered top NFL teams this season but both teams have seen surprise losses. The Giants enter this game at 8-5 and the Falcons at 11-2. It is hard to know week-to-week what Giants teams we will see. Will we get the team that soundly beat Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco and the Browns? Or will we see the team that split games to Dallas and Washington, and lost to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati? For the Falcons part they are 11-2 but were upset last week by the Panthers and split games with New Orleans.
The odds makers have this game favored to Atlanta at a 2 point spread and an over/under of 51 points
Both teams are very strong on the pass but less reliant on the run, especially so for the Falcons. The Falcons have a significantly better pass defense ranking and both teams are about the same against the run. Based on season averages the Falcons should fare better with their passing game as compared to the Giants because of the Falcons’ defensive strength. But even so, the points scored and points allowed averages are about the same for each team. NY has scored an average of 28.7 points a game and Atlanta has averaged 25.9 points a game. NY has allowed an average of 20.8 points a game and Atlanta has allowed an average of 19.9 points.
At home Atlanta is 6-0 this season and the Giants are 3-3 on the road. It is hard to say that Atlanta has a distinct home field advantage because the Giants have beat the Cowboys and the 49ers on the road despite having lost to Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Washington on the road. But still, the advantage could be there and might be good for two points.
The Giants have only once allowed over 30 points this year so we know a score of 30 for Atlanta is unlikely. In terms of offensive and defensive productivity in an opponent the Cowboys are closest the Giants have played to the Falcons. The Giants spilt games with the Cowboys, 24-17 (L) and 29-24 (W). Atlanta beat Dallas 19-13. The comparison is a little rough because the Cowboys give up more points per game than these two teams but it seems as though Atlanta has a slight advantage but the score will not get out of the low twenties for either side. More importantly, it seems less likely that the game will get to 51 points.
The Giants are relatively healthy going into this game but Atlanta might have a slight problem if RB Michael Turner is still on limited rotation. He took only 20 offensive snaps last Sunday, carrying for 14 yards and a TD on 7 carries. Without a run game the bump from home field advantage is negated so keep an eye this situation.
A score of 26-24 for the Giants would be appropriate if you are looking at the averages over the season. Flip it and you get something close to what the odds makers are predicting. However, the Giants seem to fair well against pass dependent teams. The Giants are probably the better pick to win this game. But it will be very difficult to cover this spread.
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