San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds Preview - NFL Week 15
This week’s Sunday Night Football is going to feature two of the league’s top teams: the 49ers at the Patriots. If you watched the Patriots last week on Monday Night Football you saw them systematically dismantle the Houston Texans. The now 11-2 Texans looked amateurish in Foxboro as the Patriots dominated them on offense and defense finishing with a score of 42-14. With the exception of St. Louis, the 49ers have been dominating opponents over the past 5 weeks and enter this game with a 9-3-1 record. New England has a 10-3 record and has clinched their division.
The 49ers are 4-2 on the road this season while the Patriots are 5-1 at home and are consistently unbeatable in December.
Despite New England being the clear favorite, this will still be a very competitive game and certainly not a lock. New England has clear offensive superiority averaging 66 more offensive yards per game than San Francisco and scoring an average of 12 more points per game than San Francisco. But defensively the 49ers are superior allowing 100 fewer yards per game than New England and allowing about 7 fewer points per game than New England.
The 49ers have the best defense in the league ranking 2nd in both pass and run defense. The Patriots’ offense ranks 5th in the pass and 7th in the run. Then on the other side, the 49ers have the 2nd best run game in the league but will face the 8th best run defense in the league. San Francisco throws for an average of 198.5 yards a game but New England allows an average of 275.5 passing yards per game. Essentially the big question is how can the 49ers defense manage a red hot Patriots offense led by Tom Brady?
We can expect the 49ers to put up 27 points this game. Last week they beat Miami 27-13, and Miami has an identical defensive stat sheet as the Patriots in defensive strengths and points allowed. Maybe take away a few points from that to account for a more challenging environment at New England’s Gillette Stadium; so say 24 points.
New England averages 36.3 points a game and the 49ers allow an average of 14.2 points a game, which makes this component tough to pick. Other tough defenses that New England has faced were Denver at home 31-21(W) and Seattle on the road 24-23(L). Both teams allow fewer than 20 points a game on average, Seattle being the lower of the two. If you look at which offenses the 49ers have faced with similar rankings as New England you see a 26-3 (L) to the Giants. Therefore if a fair prediction of New England’s offensive performance would be between 26 and 31 points.
Using the odds you get a score of about 27-21 for New England. Using the averages discussed here you get a score of about 28-24 for New England. Given how good New England looked last Monday night and how good 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is looking, the higher score makes more sense. Therefore New England to not cover the spread but pick the over bet.
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