This is the week that the Seattle Seahawks have been waiting for since Week 7 when they just lost 13-6 to their division rivals the San Francisco 49ers. Seattle’s playoff hopes are pretty slim right now, even if they beat San Francisco this week they would have to win next week against the Rams and San Francisco would have to lose to the Cardinals, but this game is about more than playoffs for the Seahawks. Some have described the Week 7 matchup between these teams as the hardest hitting game of the season. In nearly every way these two teams are identical and thus the odds on this game are not a surprise.
The 49ers are 10-3-1, on a two game win streak and beat the Patriots 41-34 last week in an outstanding game on the road. Seattle is 9-5, on a three game win streak and just pounded the Bills last week 50-17. On the road this season the 49ers are 5-2, pretty good, but at home the Seahawks are an outstanding 6-0 this season.
The 49ers just edge out the Seahawks in every category but not by much. The 49ers average 362 yards per game of offense; the Seahawks average 350 yards per game. The 49ers allow an average of 293 yards per game and the Seahawks allow an average of 304 yards per game. We can expect each team to produce and defend along the lines of their averages. If that is true then the spread should not be bet against. The 49ers score an average of 25.5 points a game and the Seahawks score an average of 25 points a game. The 49ers allow an average of 15.6 points a game and the Seahawks allow the same with 15.6 points a game.
Seattle has that terrific home field advantage, but the 49ers have something that Seattle did not see last time, QB Colin Kaepernick. In his 6 ½ games this season, Kaepernick has almost caught 49ers QB Alex Smith in passing production and has quickly surpassed Smith in rushing production. On 154 attempts he has thrown for 1289 yards (65.6%), 7 TDs and 2 INTs. But rushing, he has run for 379 yards on 53 attempts and scored 5 TDS. That rushing component has added a great new dimension to the 49ers’ offense. Seattle season long starting QB Russell Wilson has a completion average of 62.9%, he has a higher INTs to TDs ratio than Kaepernick, and while he has three rushing TDs, they all came last week against Buffalo. In Week 7 the 49ers held Wilson to 122 passing yards and 10 rushing yards.
While Kaepernick is a great reason to take the 49ers this week, he is absolutely not a good enough reason to be sure the 49ers can cover the spread. Seattle has beat Dallas, Green Bay, New England and Minnesota at home this season. All are very tough opponents and all are playoff contenders, if not guaranteed playoff spots. Therefore we know Seattle is ready to take on the 49ers are home. But if you are thinking the game could go over the 39 point total that is not a bad bet. Consider that the Seattle-New England game went to 47 points in Seattle and the Seattle-Minnesota game went to 50 points in Seattle. Plus the 49ers went to 75 points last week against New England and the 49ers-Vikings game went to 37 points.
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