UFC 155 - Dos Santos vs. Velasquez II Betting Odds

UFC 155 will be headlined by the Junior Dos Santos versus Cain Velasquez fight. This is a rematch fight after Dos Santos took the UFC Heavyweight title from Cain Velasquez last November. Back in October 2010 Velasquez took the belt from Brock Lesnar after a R1 knockout. Then in his first defense of the belt he lost it to Dos Santos a year later in another R1 knockout. Then at UFC 146 in May 2012 Dos Santos defended the belt against Frank Mir (R2 TKO) and Velasquez beat Antonio Silva (R1 TKO) to earn himself a rematch.

Junior Dos Santos is favored to win this fight at -170 to Cain Velasquez at +140

Junior Dos Santos has a professional record of 15-1 but in the UFC he is undefeated at 9-0 with that one title defense against Frank Mir. His strength is his striking and it shows in his 49% of strikes landed and 63% of strikes defended. Junior has won 6 of his 9 UFC fights by knockout, one by submission and two by unanimous decision. Takedowns are not of much interest for him, he has only attempted 4 while in the UFC. But he has made three of those four attempts and avoids 88% of takedowns from opponents. Dos Santos is patient, efficient and sharp when he punches; his punches are always quality when he throws them.

Cain Velasquez is 10-1 in his professional career. He had a victory in a Strikeforce fight, then one in a Bodog fight before coming to the UFC. After winning 7 in a row in the UFC and taking the belt from Lesnar, he lost his first fight to Dos Santos. The most impressive factor in Velasquez’s favor is that of his ten wins, he has had 9 TKOs (8 in the 1st round) and one unanimous decision. The first time he has been knocked out was against Dos Santos. Velasquez is a very different fighter than Dos Santos. Cain is a solid striker but he is an equally reliable takedown fighter. He lands 60% of his strikes but most of those are from the ground because he completes 67% of his takedowns. He defends 65% of opponent strikes and 71% of takedown attempts. Velasquez is most comfortable and most effective on the mat.

It makes sense then why Dos Santos was able to beat Velasquez the first time. Junior has a tremendous stand-up striking game and is able to defend the takedown at a high level of success. Velasquez needs the takedowns to exploit his opponents with his ground game. The hands of Dos Santos are fast and deadly, Velasquez has to be aggressive in pursuing the takedown in this fight if he is going to take the belt back.

Junior Dos Santos is predicting another knockout, perhaps in a later round, while Velasquez has been quiet about knockouts and more concerned with how he will have to fight to get the title back. That reflects each fighter’s strategy, Dos Santos to stand up and punch, Velasquez to fight a well-rounded fight. However, both fighters have a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, which means the ground game may not be the advantage that Velasquez hopes it will be. Then again Velasquez has had plenty of time to look at Dos Santos, find weaknesses and train to beat this man. Dos Santos is talking about setting records, Velasquez is talking about winning the title. One has to wonder if Velasquez won’t come to this fight better prepared.

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