NCAA College Football Betting - Notre Dame vs. Boston College

NCAA College Football Betting - Notre Dame vs. Boston College

Last week Notre Dame (#4) just barely overcame the unranked Pittsburgh Panthers to move to an undefeated 9-0. This week they take on Boston College on the road. Boston College is 2-7 having beat Maine and Maryland. But they will face an extremely difficult challenge this week when Notre Dame rolls into town. Last week Notre prevailed in 3OT over Pittsburgh 29-26. That is the second time this season that Notre Dame has been pushed to OT, the first was against Stanford.

Does that mean that some should be worried about the outcome this week? The win should be little doubt but it is fair to question offensive production. Notre Dame is favored to win this game by an 18 point spread and an over/under of 48 points.

Last week Notre Dame was behind 20-6 in the fourth quarter but struggled back to tie the game at the end of regulation. The Fighting Irish had to switch between QBs a few times during the game as starter Everett Golson was missing reads and bungling on-field decisions. However back-up QB Tommy Rees threw an interception and that led to Golson’s return to the game. Notre Dame almost did not make a comeback after Golson also threw an interception in the fourth quarter. After a big defensive stop in Pittsburgh’s own end, the Irish were able to tie the game.

Pittsburgh was 4-4 before last week’s loss, is there any reason to think that Boston College can play well enough to challenge the Irish? They might have a chance if Notre Dame’s defense is sloppy and Notre Dame’s offense stumbles again. Boston College has something important going for them. They have scored an average of 22.1 points per game and Notre Dame has scored an average of 26.7 points, that’s pretty close. But it is more likely that Boston College will struggle to get those 22.1 points against the 2nd best defense in the country.

Probably Boston College is good for 10 points this week. Against Clemson (#13) Boston College scored 31 points and Clemson has averaged 23.8 points against them this season. Then against Florida State (#10) Boston College scored only 7 points and Florida State averages 12 points against this season (#3 in the nation).

Notre Dame scores an average of just 26.7 points a game, but, Boston College allows an average of 30.9 points a game. Thus Notre Dame is good for their 27 points at a minimum. They have been known to score more against unranked opponents but they are also very inconsistent. That makes a conservative score of 27-10. That doesn’t cover the spread or meet the over/under. The only games this season that Notre Dame score more than 27 points were against Navy, Miami (FL) and Oklahoma (#12). That Notre Dame beat Miami (FL) 41-3 and Boston College lost 41-32 would suggest that Notre Dame might score over 40 points. In that scenario both the spread and the total are covered, assuming Notre Dame still holds Boston College to around 10 points. The in-between scenario using the spread and the over/under would be 34-15. That would be atypical for Notre Dame who normally has a blow out or a close game. Therefore the better bets are to choose Notre Dame not to cover the spread or go over, or Notre Dame to cover the spread and go over.

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