Chicago will be looking to step over Dallas this coming Monday night as the Cowboys host the Bears for what is set to be an interesting Monday night game in Week Four. After last Monday night’s debacle in the dying seconds of the Packers-Seahawks game, who knows what we will get this week out of the NFL replacement referees. This game is set to be a close game with the Cowboys favored to win by a spread of 4 points and an over/under of 41.5 points.
The problem with picking a Chicago-Dallas game is both teams have had a bad tendency in the past few years of losing when they are supposed to win and losing bad when they are supposed to lose. For example, in Week Two Dallas was favored to win by 3 points against the Seahawks but then lost 27-7, or, at the end of last season Dallas lost their last two games (to the Eagles then the Giants) by about 5x what they were supposed to lose by. Chicago was supposed to lose a close game to Green Bay in Week Two this year but instead lost by more than two times the predicted spread. Bottom line is it’s hard to predict how these teams will do week-to-week.
Dallas has higher total offensive yards this season, higher passing yards but less running yards. Chicago has allowed less rushing yards but allowed more passing yards than Dallas. This might suggest that Chicago will stop the weak Dallas run but not the strong Dallas passing offense. Dallas has averaged an 18 points allowed per game this season while Chicago has permitted an average of 16 points a game. Chicago has scored an average of 24.7 points while Dallas only 15.7 points. This makes a game total of 41.5 points very improbable. These two teams have not played each other in two years so past comparisons are useless. A 4 point spread is a good indication of an unpredictable offensive situation. Dallas will need more than a field goal but not a touchdown plus convert to cover the spread.
Last week the Cowboys’ offensive line had a hard time containing the pass rush. Expect Chicago to come after Tony Romo this week, the Bears have 14 sacks this season. This could be the crutch of the Dallas offense, nonetheless the Cowboys to beat the 4 point spread is reasonable. If the Bears win it will be because of their pass rush and the play of CB Tim Jennings who has 4 interceptions this season and nine broken up passes.
The Cowboys are having safety problems with Barry Church out for the season with a torn Achilles that he sustained in the Tampa Bay game. Also, safety Gerald Sensabaugh is questionable to return this week as he sustained a calf injury earlier this season. This sort of thing could weaken the very strong pass defense for the Cowboys. However, Chicago running back Matt Forte will miss this week’s game with a sprained ankle. The Bears have been looking at former Packer RB Ryan Grant and this could be an indication that Bears’ backup RB Michael Bush, while performing well last week, is banged up after an admittedly physical game with the Rams. Keep an eye on this situation as it may be the difference between a successful Bears run game this week or not. That translates to a direct impact on the spread.
Sportsbooks offering NFL Betting for US Players:
Sportsbooks offering NFL Betting for Canadians: